Today's Top 10 Headlines: What Matters Most in America Right Now

the ten year treasury yield just closed at 5.28% in recent sessions it hit 5.34% its highest level since 2002 in our last briefing we sorted through the day's top headlines today that one number is the only headline that really matters because it's a warning sign the market is trying its best to ignore here's the setup friday's jobs report for september came in weaker than expected in a normal world that's good news for bonds it signals a cooling economy which means the federal reserve is less likely to raise interest rates so yields should go down but they didn't they went up this is the market telling you something is broken the conventional wisdom is that a

soft jobs report gives the fed cover to hold rate steady at its october meeting and that should be good for stocks but the bond market isn't buying it the relentless climb in yields even against seemingly good news suggests a deeper anxiety it suggests investors demand a higher return for lending money to the us government over the next decade why because they are worried about something more fundamental than one month's jobs data they're worried about debt the us national debt now stands at over $40,000,000,000,000 the interest payments alone are now over $1,000,000,000,000 a year that exceeds the entire military budget when the cost of servicing your old debt becomes one of your biggest expenses you have a structural problem and no single fed meeting is going to fix that so while stock traders might cheer a temporary rate hold the bond market the so called smart money is pricing in long term risk that is the signal from five point three four percent it's a fever spike a quick reminder this is general information not financial

advice while wall street is watching yields the white house is watching the calendar the november midterm elections are just one month away and with polls showing voters are deeply concerned about the cost of living the administration just made a very direct move president trump announced his administration is sending $90 payments to more than 20,000,000 seniors the money he says is to help them pay for their medicare part b premiums the white house confirmed the payments will go out in early october 20,000,000 people $90 each that's $1,800,000,000 in direct deposits and checks landing just weeks before people vote this isn't happening in a vacuum the move comes as the war in iran remains deeply unpopular and high fuel prices with oil hovering around $100 a barrel are hitting consumers hard this is a direct attempt to put money in the pockets of a key voting bloc the administration is essentially writing a check to counter economic anxiety and they're not subtle about it the president also floated another much larger idea 5,000 to every adult citizen

but only if and when republicans win the midterms it's a clear pattern when the broader economic narrative is souring you switch to direct tangible benefits you can't fix $40,000,000,000,000 in debt before an election but you can mail a $90 check that economic anxiety and the political response are both being fueled by the same thing the war with iran the cost is staggering public policy experts estimate the final bill will be upwards of $1,000,000,000,000 and because it's financed with debt the interest costs will add billions more costs passed to the next generation washington is trying to force an outcome on october 1 the us imposed a new wave of sanctions this time targeting iran's largest automakers

and its rail companies these measures are starting to bite iranian flights to the uae iraq and turkey have been disrupted the economic pressure is immense coming just after iran crushed internal protests over soaring prices and there are signs iran is feeling the strain they've recently proposed a seven day truce there were reports they've suggested restoring access to nuclear inspectors but this is a dangerous moment as one analyst at chatham house put it this kind of pressure can produce two opposite responses concessions or a preemptive strike iran's biggest leverage remains its ability to close the strait of hormuz choking off global energy supplies and sending inflation soaring they know that is president trump's biggest vulnerability at

home and maybe that's why the president himself just gave the game away asked about the war he said it could end very soon his exact words probably right after the elections the bond market is sending a signal the white house is sending checks the pentagon is expanding its military presence three different stories all pointing to the same deadline the first tuesday in november