Diplomatic Power Plays: The Moves Shaping Tomorrow's World

iran just received the american answer to its proposal to end the seven month war at the same time president trump declared total victory in our last episode we talked about what truly shifts the balance of power today you are watching it happen in real time from the strait of hormuz to the backrooms of washington the gap between the public posturing and the private reality has never been wider here's what else is moving the board in milwaukee g 20 trade ministers are meeting right now the agenda is steel the subtext is china us trade representative jamieson greer is pushing for coordinated action against excess production he says every country will decide its own tariffs but the message is clear the era of uncoordinated trade remedies is over they are building a united front in the gulf saudi arabia's crown prince mohammed bin salman just put the region on notice he's reaffirming the maka joint defense alliance with pakistan and turkey an attack on one is now an attack on all he's drawing a hard line calling

out houthi forces in yemen and stating riyadh will respond decisively to any threat this isn't just talk it's the formalizing of a new security block meanwhile russia is preparing for a long war moscow just hiked its 2027 defense budget by 27% that's 17,100,000,000,000 rubles the highest since the ukraine conflict began and where does that money come from cuts to education health care and welfare it's a wartime budget signaling zero intent to deescalate in response ukraine isn't waiting president zelenskyy just announced the carpathian eight it's a new cooperation format pulling in romania serbia poland and five other neighbors they're focused on security energy and logistics it's a new

block built for resilience right on russia's doorstep and finally the world's two biggest powers are in a holding pattern the us china summit last week ended in what one analyst called a managed stalemate they agreed to lower some tariffs on $60,000,000,000 of nonsensitive goods but the big deal is postponed and the $20,000,000,000 us arms sale to taiwan still undecided the pageantry was there the substantive progress was not now let's go back to iran because what is happening there is a master class in high stakes diplomacy and public deception here are the facts on the ground iran's economy is shattered 300% inflation its military has taken heavy losses today president trump said quote we have a nation that's been virtually destroyed he claims the us has virtually

total control of the strait of hormuz so iran made an offer foreign minister abbas arakshi presented a proposal reopen the strait within a week in exchange the us lifts its blockade unfreezes assets and waives oil sanctions iran's new president moshe peshkien said any deal must be a win win strategy today the official us response was delivered to him in tehran we don't know what that private message said but we know what president trump said publicly he rejected the proposal called it unacceptable and declared the war essentially won here is what is actually happening while trump declares victory and iran talks about win win scenarios a furious diplomatic effort is underway to avoid total collapse look

at the travel logs israeli prime minister netanyahu was just in abu dhabi for a secret meeting with the uae president days later the saudi foreign minister was in washington talking to the secretary of state this isn't a coincidence as one analyst cyril witterschauvin put it these governments appear to be preparing for escalation at the same time at the same time they are trying to discuss how to set up arrangements to contain it that is the story the simultaneous preparation for war and the desperate search for an off ramp everyone is talking to everyone the saudis are building a new alliance with turkey and pakistan because they can't be sure where washington will land the israelis

and emiratis are coordinating because the threat is at their doorstep they see trump's rhetoric but they also see the seven month long war that is not in fact over they are hedging their bets this is the real balance of power it's not found in a press conference it's found in these frantic overlapping diplomatic maneuvers everyone is trying to secure their own position in a region that could ignite at any moment the twenty ninth geneva report on the world economy came out this week its conclusion was that the international system is in a state of transition not rupture that's the perfect description for what we're seeing today the old alliances are stressed new ones are forming

and everyone is trying to manage the chaos the system hasn't broken but the transition is violent