Diplomatic Fault Lines: Power Plays Shaping the World Today

the islamabad memorandum of understanding is dead it was signed in june and by july it had functionally collapsed in our last briefing you and i talked about diplomatic fault lines today we're watching the consequences of one of those lines shattering completely the interim deal between iran and the us brokered by pakistan is no longer just broken it has created a vacuum and that vacuum is being filled with threats not talks it dramatically expands the president's power to sanction anyone anywhere who supports russia's defense industrial base and it comes with teeth the bill authorizes tariffs of up to 500% on russian goods it also gives the president authority to sanction leaders of rosatom russia's state atomic

energy corporation this isn't just turning a screw it's handing the white house a whole new toolbox of economic warfare meanwhile there's talk of easing sanctions on the so called shadow fleet of oil tankers these are the ships that have been moving sanctioned crude from places like iran and venezuela the idea is to bring them back into the legitimate market maybe ease oil prices but don't expect a flood of new supply analysts are already pouring cold water on the plan a new report from reuters says any easing would likely have a very limited impact too many of the ships are too old too poorly maintained or too tangled in opaque ownership structures to be brought back

into the fold easily it's a policy gesture that looks bigger on paper than it will be on the water let's go back to iran because what happened with the islamabad mou is a masterclass in how modern diplomacy falls apart you need to understand what this deal was supposed to be it wasn't a grand peace treaty it was a sixty day road map a temporary truce it was brokered by islamabad with qatar and oman playing supporting roles it was designed to do three things quickly unfreeze iranian funds lift the us naval blockade and guarantee safe passage for commercial ships through the strait of hormuz it was meant to be a circuit breaker a way to step

back from the brink it didn't work tehran claims the us violated the terms first by continuing naval operations and extending sanctions so iran formally announced it was suspending its own commitments the key phrase from iran's deputy foreign minister was that their focus had shifted to absolute conventional defense that is not diplomatic language that is the language of a country preparing for a shooting war so the deal that was meant to create guardrails is gone and now both washington and tehran are operating without them the what's different today isn't a new announcement it's the chilling silence where frantic diplomacy used to be the risk of a full scale conventional war in the middle east didn't just go up it became the new baseline

and this is where the new sanctions bill comes into focus you see the pattern as one diplomatic door closes the economic arsenal gets bigger the lindsey graham act isn't just about punishing russia it's about codifying a new kind of global economic policing it targets any foreign person who knowingly helps russia's war machine that could be a bank in dubai a chip manufacturer in southeast asia or a shipping company flying a flag of convenience it even authorizes sanctions on global financial messaging services that's a direct shot across the bow of any country trying to build an alternative to the swift system the message is clear you are either with the us financial system or you are

a target this is a profound shift sanctions are no longer just a tool they are becoming the entire strategy the legislation essentially says the president can't lift these sanctions until russia signs a peace deal accepted by ukraine and ceases all military action it takes the option of a negotiated settlement that kyiv might not like off the table it legislates the terms of surrender diplomacy by treaty is being replaced by diplomacy by sanction the central question in foreign policy is no longer who you can talk to it's who you can afford to cut off and the list of targets just got a lot longer